UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026 'The Point of Return': exceeding 1.5°C now unavoidable; 18% cut by 2030 needed to return
The UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2026, 'The Point of Return', released in Nairobi on 21 October 2026, says global warming will exceed 1.5°C and that emissions must fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 (vs 2025) to limit peak warming to 1.7-1.8°C and return to 1.5°C by 2100.
Summary
The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) released the Emissions Gap Report 2026, titled 'The Point of Return', in Nairobi on 21 October 2026; it is the seventeenth edition of the report. It finds that global temperature rise is set to exceed the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement and models a 'lowest possible' overshoot path in which peak warming is held to 1.7-1.8°C around mid-century and brought back to 1.5°C by 2100. This needs greenhouse gas emissions to fall by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 from 2025 levels, along with large-scale carbon dioxide removal. Under current policies, warming could reach 2.8°C this century, and full implementation of national climate pledges (NDCs) would limit it only to 2.6°C.
Key facts
- Report
- Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return (17th edition)
- Publisher
- UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
- Released
- 21 October 2026, Nairobi
- Main finding
- Exceeding 1.5°C is now unavoidable
- Lowest overshoot path
- Peak 1.7-1.8°C by mid-century, back to 1.5°C by 2100
- Cuts needed (vs 2025)
- 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, 69% by 2040
- Current policies
- Up to 2.8°C warming this century
- All NDCs implemented
- 2.6°C
- CO2 removal needed
- About 320 gigatonnes this century
- UNEP Executive Director
- Inger Andersen
Practice MCQs 3 questions
Which organisation released the Emissions Gap Report 2026, titled 'The Point of Return', in October 2026?
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Correct answer: A — UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
According to the Emissions Gap Report 2026, by what percentage must global greenhouse gas emissions fall by 2030 (relative to 2025) for the 'lowest possible' 1.5°C overshoot pathway?
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Correct answer: B — 18%
Consider the following statements about the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026: 1. Under current policies, warming could reach 2.8°C within this century. 2. Full implementation of all NDCs would limit warming to 1.5°C without overshoot. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
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Correct answer: A — 1 only