First Advance Estimates: India's real GDP to grow 7.4% in 2025-26
The National Statistics Office (MoSPI) released the First Advance Estimates of GDP for 2025-26 on 7 January 2026, projecting real GDP growth of 7.4% (6.5% in 2024-25), nominal GDP growth of 8.0% and real GVA growth of 7.3%.
Summary
The National Statistics Office (NSO) of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation released the First Advance Estimates of GDP for 2025-26 on 7 January 2026. Real GDP is estimated to grow 7.4% to ₹201.90 lakh crore, against 6.5% in 2024-25, while nominal GDP is set to grow 8.0% to ₹357.14 lakh crore; real GVA is estimated to grow 7.3%, led by services. Financial, real estate, professional and public administration services are estimated to grow 9.9%, manufacturing and construction 7.0%, and agriculture 3.1%, while gross fixed capital formation grows 7.8%. Constant-price figures use the 2011-12 base year, and advance estimates are compiled with the benchmark-indicator method, extrapolating the previous year's estimates with sector indicators.
Key facts
- Released by
- NSO, MoSPI — 7 January 2026
- Real GDP growth
- 7.4% in 2025-26 (6.5% in 2024-25); level ₹201.90 lakh crore
- Nominal GDP
- ₹357.14 lakh crore, +8.0%
- Real GVA growth
- 7.3%
- Sectors
- Financial/real estate/public admin 9.9%; manufacturing & construction 7.0%; agriculture 3.1%; utilities 2.1%
- Demand
- PFCE +7.0%; GFCF +7.8% (7.1% previous year)
- Method
- Base year 2011-12; benchmark-indicator method
Practice MCQs 4 questions
What real GDP growth rate for 2025-26 did the NSO's First Advance Estimates (January 2026) project?
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Correct answer: C — 7.4%
PIB (MoSPI): real GDP is estimated to grow by 7.4% in 2025-26 against 6.5% in 2024-25.
Which base year is used for the constant-price GDP figures in the First Advance Estimates for 2025-26?
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Correct answer: B — 2011-12
PIB (MoSPI): the estimates are given at constant (2011-12) and current prices.
What is the estimated level of real GDP (constant prices) for 2025-26 in the First Advance Estimates?
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Correct answer: D — ₹201.90 lakh crore
PIB (MoSPI): real GDP is estimated at ₹201.90 lakh crore in 2025-26, against ₹187.97 lakh crore in 2024-25.
Consider the following statements based on the First Advance Estimates of GDP for 2025-26: 1. Nominal GDP is estimated to grow at 8.0%. 2. Real GVA is estimated to grow at 7.3%. 3. Agriculture and allied sector is estimated to grow faster than manufacturing and construction. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
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Correct answer: A — 1 and 2 only
PIB (MoSPI): statements 1 and 2 are correct; agriculture is estimated at 3.1% against 7.0% for manufacturing and construction, so statement 3 is wrong.