IMD forecasts below-normal 2026 southwest monsoon at 92% of LPA
The India Meteorological Department's first-stage forecast on 13 April 2026 said the June–September 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall is most likely to be below normal, at 92% of the Long Period Average with a model error of ±5%.
Summary
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on 13 April 2026 that the 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall (June to September) over the country is most likely to be below normal, in the 90–95% range of the Long Period Average (LPA). Quantitatively, seasonal rainfall is forecast at 92% of the LPA with a model error of ±5%; the LPA for 1971–2020 is 87 cm. IMD said weak La Niña–like conditions are moving to ENSO-neutral over the equatorial Pacific, and its Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggests El Niño conditions may develop during the monsoon season. Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are neutral, with positive IOD conditions likely towards the end of the season. Northern Hemisphere snow cover in January–March 2026 was slightly below normal; IMD notes snow cover generally has an inverse relationship with monsoon rainfall. An updated forecast is due in the last week of May 2026.
Key facts
- Forecast
- Below normal: 92% of LPA (±5%)
- Category range
- 90–95% of LPA
- LPA (1971–2020)
- 87 cm
- Pacific
- Weak La Niña-like → ENSO-neutral; MMCFS indicates El Niño during season
- Indian Ocean
- Neutral IOD; positive IOD likely late in season
- Next update
- Last week of May 2026
Practice MCQs 3 questions
According to IMD's first-stage forecast of April 2026, the 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over India is expected to be what percentage of the Long Period Average?
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Correct answer: D — 92%
IMD forecast 92% of the LPA with a model error of ±5%, which falls in the below-normal category.
The Long Period Average of India's southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall used by IMD in 2026 is:
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Correct answer: A — 87 cm, based on 1971–2020
IMD states the LPA of seasonal rainfall over the country, based on 1971–2020, is 87 cm.
Consider the following statements from IMD's April 2026 monsoon forecast: 1. The Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System suggests El Niño conditions may develop during the southwest monsoon season. 2. Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are currently neutral, and positive IOD conditions are likely to develop towards the end of the season. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
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Correct answer: C — Both 1 and 2
Both statements are correct as per IMD.