IMD forecasts above-normal 2025 southwest monsoon at 105% of LPA
The India Meteorological Department's first-stage forecast, issued on 15 April 2025, says the June–September 2025 southwest monsoon rainfall is most likely to be above normal at 105% of the Long Period Average, with a model error of ±5%.
Summary
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on 15 April 2025 that the 2025 southwest monsoon (June–September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal (more than 104% of the Long Period Average). Quantitatively, it is forecast at 105% of the LPA with a model error of ±5%; the LPA for 1971–2020 is 87 cm. Neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions prevail and are likely to continue through the monsoon, though atmospheric circulation resembles La Niña. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are neutral and expected to stay so. Snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia from January to March 2025 was below normal; this generally has an inverse relationship with Indian summer monsoon rainfall. IMD will update the forecast in the last week of May 2025.
Key facts
- Forecast
- Above normal: 105% of LPA (±5%)
- Season
- June–September 2025
- LPA (1971–2020)
- 87 cm
- ENSO
- Neutral, likely to continue
- IOD
- Neutral, likely to continue
- Eurasian snow cover (Jan–Mar 2025)
- Below normal
- Next update
- Last week of May 2025
Practice MCQs 3 questions
In its April 2025 forecast, IMD put the 2025 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall at what percentage of the Long Period Average?
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Correct answer: C — 105%
105% of the LPA, with a model error of ±5%, i.e. above normal.
The Long Period Average (LPA) of southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole, for the period 1971–2020, is:
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Correct answer: A — 87 cm
87 cm, as stated by IMD.
Consider the following statements based on IMD's April 2025 monsoon forecast: 1. Neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season. 2. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season. Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
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Correct answer: C — Both 1 and 2
Both are correct. IMD expects both ENSO and IOD to remain neutral through the season.